From my scientific point of view we have three options on how this drought will end and how we will recover, all have pros and cons but only one seems likely.
Over the next week or so I will take an in depth view of what I think the three most likely 'fixes' to the drought will be.
Fix #1: This is most likely the best possible solution, unfortunately it seems the least likely to happen.
A harsh and heavy snow winter would be best. If we could get two or three decent snowfalls each with a prolonged period of temperatures slightly below normal this would keep the snow on the ground.
On of the reasons this would be a great solution is that the snow melt could happen slowly and this would allow all the moisture to slowly soak into the Texoma soil and clay.
But this solution has a few 'cons'.
First off the rainfall to snowfall ratio is usually one inch of rainfall equals 10 or more inches of snow. And with a 17 inch rainfall defect right now we would need at least 170 inches of snow! Yikes! (And, that's based on the rainfall deficit right now, not including further amounting deficits in July and August!) Certainly this doesn't seem likely and would most likely send Texomans' into a panic thinking armageddon was arriving if our winter saw 170 inches of snow.
The second 'con' with this solution is that the long term forecast calls for a winter with temperatures above normal and only normal rain/snowfall.
My prediction for the chance of this solution happening: <5%.
Coming up soon I'll look at the second possible solution to resolving the drought. Here is a hint, it would come from our south.
Meteorologist Bryan Rupp.
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