The latest report is valid from now until the end of November 2014 (November 30, 2014).
It has areas near and including portions of Montague County in "drought removal likely." This could mean that portions of Texoma for the first time since year 2010 may be free of drought by Thanksgiving.
In addition the remainder of Texoma is in the "drought remains but improves" category.
This is an improvement from the last report issued in July when areas of Palo Pinto, Young, Throckmorton, Knox and King Counties were still in the "Drought persists or intensifies" category.
One must remember that the drought has been going on for a long time and it will take a long time to get out of the drought. Even though the category "drought remains but improves" indicates that the drought will remain in Texoma we must focus on the 'but improves' phrasing. This means that instead of being in Stage 5 or Exceptional Drought we might be downgraded at some point this autumn to stage 4 Extreme or even stage 3 Severe.
This is the news that we have been waiting for since the beginning of the decade when the Great Drought started.
In addition one must consider that fact that the latest report from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) El Nino forecast had a 60% likelihood of occurring in the Pacific Ocean.
If the El Nino would come to pass it would mean wet and cool weather generally in Texoma and latest trends indicate this would begin in Texoma sometime in October and continue through the winter months.
This is the opposite of La Nina which we experienced from 2010 to 2012 when hot and dry weather plagued Texoma.
To recap; with an El Nino forecast of 60% and a Seasonal Drought Outlook of "drought remains but improves" this could be the big break that we have been waiting for.
KFDX Meteorologist Bryan Rupp
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