If you live east of Frederick, Vernon ,or Seymour, you've probably been asking, "Where is
all that rain you weather guys said we were supposed to get?"
Well,if you haven't seen rain yet, be patient. The forecast has been for rain chances
to last through Tuesday, with the best chances for eastern locations Monday through
Where it has been raining has been just to your west. Many locations in our western counties
have picked up more than an inch of rain since this past Friday
A look at radar estimated rainfall totals in the image above shows locations on the
Hardeman and Foard county lines as well as portions of Wilbarger county have picked
up close to 4 inches of rain.
This is great news because all of this rain has fallen in locations that are still under
exceptional drought. Even better, it's fallen in western portions of the water shed.
But when is it suppose to rain at (insert your location here)? Click page "2" to continue.
The forecast since last week has called for several days of showers and thunderstorms
between Friday and this coming Tuesday due to an upper level low becoming what we refer
to as "cut-off." This happens when low pressure gets left behind from the jet stream, which
is responsible for carrying storm systems from point A to point B.
This low pressure system is doing exactly what is has been forecasted to do. It got off
the jet stream while it was in Las Vegas and had a little too much fun. Consequently, it
missed it's connection back onto the jet stream. So, this low has been meandering around the
desert southwest like a poor lost soul.
The closer this "cut-off" low pressure system makes it to Texoma, the further east rainfall
chances will go. Cut-off lows are notorious for taking their time and moving extremely slow.
But it's more complicated than that. Click page "3" to continue.
What we've seen over the past few nights is numerous showers and thunderstorms developing
on the Texas, New Mexico border. These complexes are called mesoscale convective systems
and they are most common late May into early June around Texoma. They are essentially
clusters of thunderstorms that take on a linear shape, last for several hours and produce
locally heavy rain and sometimes damaging winds and large hail.
As the thunderstorms move further away from the support of the upper-level cut-off low,
they become supported by the the low level jet. This is a ribbon of fast moving air in the
low levels of the atmosphere. Essentially, a low-level jet stream that is most active at night.
Thunderstorm complexes since Friday have developed overnight and have tracked towards Texoma. By morning,
they begin to weaken because the low-level jet weakens. As a result, the dissipating complexes have
left stable rain-cooled air over the eastern half of Texoma, resulting in a tough environment for
thunderstorms to form in.
As the cut-off low moves closer to Texoma. It will provide better support for more thunderstorms to
form Monday through Tuesday.
We just have to be patient.
Here is the forecast.
Meteorologist Eric Jeansonne
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