El Nino Chance Down to 65% from 80%

El Nino Chance Down to 65% from 80%

El Nino chance has dropped down to 65% chance of formation after reaching a high of 80% on the last report.
El Nino is the weather pattern we have been waiting for to turn our situation around in Texoma.  An El Nino pattern is the opposite of the La Nina pattern.  La Nina is what we experienced during the first few years of the decade that brought us hot and dry weather continuously.  An El Nino pattern would bring us cool and wet weather.  This cool and wet weather would help recover us from the devastating drought that we have endured for the first half of the second decade of the 21st century.

Recently the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) under the guidance of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) had given the likelihood of seeing an El Nino weather pattern 80%.  But this latest report has dropped those chances down to 65%.  Of course this is still better than a 1 in 2 chance of seeing El Nino set up in the Pacific Ocean and then translate into wet and cool weather in Texoma.  But, it is down a far cry from the nearly guaranteed 80% that we were at.

The information is listed in the latest ENSO (El Nino/Southern Oscillation Diagnostic Discussions) report from the Climate Prediction Center.  To read the ENSO report for yourself click on the link at the top right in this article.

Most models are now pointing towards a modest El Nino pattern in the Pacific Ocean instead of a strong one.  This is when the Pacific Ocean water temperatures are above normal creating the El Nino weather pattern.  This would translate into our local El Nino weather pattern in Texoma approximately 4 to 6 months later.  There is a delay in the formation of the El Nino pattern in the ocean and receiving the weather change here at home.  Most forecast experts believe Texoma will see the effects of the El Nino between October and through the winter season.

However, two out lier models are pointing to a very slight La Nina pattern.  These have been thrown out.

Either way the Climate Prediction Center under the guidance of NOAA continue to keep the planet under an El Nino Watch.  This indicates that an El Nino may be forming but is not imminent.  If an El Nino becomes imminent the CPC would declare either an El Nino Advisory or an El Nino Warning.

KFDX Meteorologist Bryan Rupp
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