The National Weather Service keeps a continuous record of the following statistics:
- Tornadoes that occur in the nation
- Strength of the tornadoes
- Frequency of the tornadoes in a geographic area
- Damage of the tornadoes
This information combined allows the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center (NWS-SPC) to create risk maps for significant tornadoes.
These maps are updated daily but a clear trend has been evident lately.
These maps take the history of all tornadoes over past years and then puts them into a formula that kicks out a probability of having a significant tornado within 25 miles of any given point in the United States.
The next question you might be asking is; what is a significant tornado? Keep in mind that the Enhance Fujita Scale (EF Scale) measures the damage of a tornado. A "significant tornado" is considered to be an EF2 or greater.
Then after the damage is analyzed the tornado itself gets a rating. The rating scale goes from EF0 up to EF5. EF0 is a very weak tornado while an EF5 tornado is the strongest tornado on earth.
As far as our risks of seeing a significant tornado in any part of Texoma along and north of a line from Altus to Wichita Falls is about 0.35% and greater. Now this doesn't sound like much but it is considered by researchers to be very high. In fact it is the highest rated risk category for the United States.
Check the graphic which shows the bullseye of activity in Oklahoma and North Texas. There is a closer up image attached as well.
(NOTE: It's important to understand this information is NOT based on a forecast for today but general information about average daily chances of this type of severe weather. Again, this is NOT a forecast for today).
KFDX Meteorologist Bryan Rupp